True that you were very close.
You were actually very accurate on the indicative details that would make us believing that actually, yes, Tobi is Obito or the timeline of the events having some connection with the timeline of the events of Obito's ones.
He could even play with our mind making Tobi to state that he was Obito which again would be an 100% that he would be Obito. But we know that Kishi made this character to be a bit of a lier. What if in a singular panel, later on, when he would be by himself or with Zetsu/Madara, he will state something like "I told them I am Obito in order to play with their minds?" or something very similar to that. Wouldn't that be a second mind-f*ck (excuse my language) given to us by Kishi?
So until Kishimoto comes with an undeniable proof that he is indeed Obito, that still leaves open possibilities, as I've stated before.
What if is indeed his mind and body, but actually somewhere in the back there is God knows what whose using Tobi's counsciousness with a jutsu or something like that? What if it is his body that gave a full access to his memories but someone else is there. Like in Queen of the Damned movie (a vampire one) where when you bit someone and had his blood you had full access to his memories. Body includes the brain, the brain stores memories.
The perfect match to play with someone's mind.
Also, something to note, that rumor who was viral these days on the internet would pretty much fit the whole scenario of Tobi = Obito but is not actually Obito, is Izuna.
Because if you remember, it was said that it was indeed, Izuna BUT he will bring a lot of suffer thus implying the fact that looking like Obito will mind-blow Kakashi and everyone else who once knew Obito.
Also that was supposed to be an unleaked information by someone close to Kishimoto that instantly would blow-away the whole impact on the fanbase. But, Kishi as being smart (hope he is because of not... I don't know what to say
) made us once again fall into astonishment, as we move our beliefs regarding the rumor.
Than, he comes again later on (still have to see when) and show us Tobi as being Izuna and once again we will be mind-blown. So he got the impact he wanted in the first place EVEN THOUGH the information was leaked.
Nonetheless, we have to wait.