*IF* Madara would had died in his fight like everyone believed, and the villages where still opposing each other and eventually went to war which village would win.
READ BEFORE COMMENTING:
1: Minato and Kushina are alive, and Naruto is raised as Naruto Namikaze (Kushina still has the fox).
2: Obito is dead
3: Pain never existed, so Jman is still alive.
4:No Zetzu was ever around.
5:All Akatsuki doesn't exist and are simply rouge nin's that act as hired Ninja.
6:The Uchiha are all dead, except Sasuke who Killed Itachi and then went missing. He is considered an S class criminal but never learned the truth about Itachi (Itachi killed his family with help other than Obito).
7:ANYTHING THAT WE KNOW WAS RELATED TO MADARA BEING ALIVE IS NO LONGER RELEVANT! SO NO TAILED BEAST HAD BEEN TAKEN HOSTAGE.
Now, with out any influence from Madara the villages would had never found a reason to come together, which would had been the victor when the next war broke out. Say the time period is right after Sasuke killed Itachi, and Sasuke goes missing.